NFL
NFL after six weeks: how far my power rankings missed
NFL 2026 · the standings after six weeks
3
unbeaten teams,
ranked by me at 12, 15 and 16
My number four is 0-6. Six weeks is short, but long enough to see where a preseason ranking went crooked.
Before the season I put all 32 teams in order. Six weeks in, three of them are unbeaten, and I had those three at twelve, fifteen and sixteen. My number four has yet to win a game.
So this is the moment to walk through where I got it wrong, and why.
My top ten, and what became of it
My top ten against reality
bar = win rate · number on the left = my preseason place
Six of the ten teams in my top ten are at or below a fifty percent win rate. Only Buffalo, Denver, Baltimore and Detroit are doing roughly what I expected, and even there a caveat applies: Buffalo score the most points in the league but rank thirtieth in points allowed.
The Chargers are the biggest miss. Name a statistic that goes with a mess and they are in it: thirtieth in scoring at fifteen points a game, last of all 32 teams in EPA per play, eight interceptions against five touchdowns, and pressure on 45.8 percent of Justin Herbert's dropbacks. That last figure is the second-highest rate in the league. The defence is not where it goes wrong: it ranks twenty-second in points allowed and sits in the upper half with ten takeaways.
The Rams looked close to untouchable in the preseason and sit on four defeats after six weeks. The difference with the Chargers is that with the Rams it keeps going wrong by inches: 37-34 in overtime to Buffalo, 30-26 at Denver, 18-16 at home to Arizona. Three of the four defeats came by four points or fewer.
The low point was probably that Sunday against Arizona. A team that kicked six field goals, never reached the end zone, and still won at SoFi Stadium. Chad Ryland made all of them, the last from 43 yards in the final second.
Houston shows how fast it can turn
My number three started with four defeats and now sits at 2-4 after two straight wins. The second came at Wembley on Sunday against Jacksonville: 34-31, settled by a Ka'imi Fairbairn field goal.
What stands out there is C.J. Stroud, who genuinely looks like a different quarterback. He has thrown for 1,714 yards this season with nine touchdowns against one interception, at 285.7 yards a game. Last season he averaged 217.2 yards a game, with nineteen touchdowns and eight interceptions across the full year.
The defence went the other way. Last season Houston ranked first in total yards allowed and second in points allowed. Now they are twentieth in points allowed and twenty-seventh in passing yards allowed, though the run defence still ranks third. Last season they reached the playoffs from an 0-3 start. Now they have to try it from 0-4.
The teams I had too low
The teams I had too low
bar = win rate · number on the left = my preseason place
San Francisco are the only team with six wins already. Minnesota and Kansas City are 5-0. Minnesota with the best defence in the league at 12.8 points allowed a game and an offence that ranks twenty-second. Kansas City with the fifth offence and the second defence.
I had Jacksonville at 22, and that is where I was furthest off in the good direction. They are first in the AFC South, eighth in points scored and third in points allowed, both per game. This simply belongs among the best teams in the NFL, and losing 34-31 to Houston at Wembley on Sunday does not change much about that.
Chicago have Caleb Williams back from the hamstring injury he picked up in week 2. At Atlanta he completed 30 of 36 for 305 yards without an interception, and Chicago won 31-23 after almost giving away a 31-7 lead.
Cleveland lead the AFC North with the fourth-worst offence in the league at 17.7 points a game and the seventh-ranked defence. Las Vegas sit at 3-3, with the defeats to Kansas City and Buffalo both inside one score. The third was less close: 45-17 at New England.
Where it stands after six weeks
Where I was furthest off
- Chargersme 4 · now 0-6
Thirtieth in scoring, last in EPA per play, eight interceptions. Name a number that goes with offensive trouble and they are in it. - Ramsme 1 · now 2-4
Looked close to untouchable in the preseason. Three of their four defeats came by four points or fewer. - Cowboysme 6 · now 2-4
Badly disappointing at home to Tampa Bay in week 5, who played their undrafted backup. A week later there was nothing to see at Green Bay.
Teams I underrated
- 49ersme 15 · now 6-0
The only team with six wins already. Another 23-17 against Washington on Monday night. - Jaguarsme 22 · now 4-2
First in the AFC South, eighth in points scored and third in points allowed, both per game. This belongs among the best teams in the NFL. - Chiefsme 16 · now 5-0
Fifth in points scored, second in points allowed. I had them outside the top fifteen. - Vikingsme 12 · now 5-0
The best defence in the league at 12.8 points against, while the offence ranks twenty-second.
Teams that surprise
- Brownsme 28 · now 4-2
Top of the AFC North with the fourth-worst offence and the seventh-ranked defence. - Raidersme 30 · now 3-3
Lost to Kansas City and Buffalo, both by one score. - Falconsme 25 · now 2-4
Worth watching on offence for weeks now, but the defence ranks twenty-third. That is where it still goes wrong every week.
What I wrote about them in August
Chargers · then my number 4
Why this spot. This is the year they can break through, and that comes down to hiring Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator. Herbert set career highs last season in interceptions and in hits taken, and McDaniel has openly said he wants to make life easier for his quarterback.
Watch out for. Jesse Minter left to become head coach in Baltimore. His defence went from 29th to seventh, and successor Chris O'Leary is the biggest unknown coordinator in the league.
Rams · then my number 1
Why this spot. The offence was already the best in the league last season. This summer a defence arrived to match: Myles Garrett came from Cleveland, Aaron Donald returned, and Trent McDuffie was prised away from the Chiefs. Five Defensive Player of the Year awards in one defence.
Watch out for. They gave up Jared Verse and three draft picks for Garrett. This is all-in, and all-in leaves little room if it goes wrong.
Jaguars · then my number 22
Why this spot. Jacksonville has a strong staff with Liam Coen as head coach, and he turned the team from mid-table into a playoff side in a single year.
Watch out for. The draft was no highlight and drew low grades from analysts, and Travis Etienne left for New Orleans. Around Lawrence it has got thinner, not thicker.
So is there really no team that convinces in the opening weeks? Almost none. Three teams are unbeaten, two have yet to win, and in between sits a middle group where anyone can beat anyone.
That is exactly what makes it entertaining. The salary cap, the draft order and the schedules are all built to keep the gap small, and the result is that the NFL is simply not predictable. A preseason ranking is no more than a snapshot of what you thought in August.
In six weeks I will do this again. The odds are good that I will be wrong somewhere again, and it will still be worth seeing where.