NBA
NBA 2026-27 tips off tonight: my top ten for this season
NBA 2026-27 · opening night
53
years since New York's
previous title
Tonight the banner goes up at Madison Square Garden, and a season begins in which almost every team carries a question mark.
The first ball of the 2026-27 NBA season goes up tonight with Boston at Detroit, at 3pm Eastern. Two more games follow the same evening, and from there the season runs through to 11 April.
Everything below is opinion. No model, no bookmaker, no number that falls out of a spreadsheet. A ranking made before the first ball is a snapshot, and that is the point: in a few months you can read back how far off I was.
The three games of 20 October
times in central european time · all three on NBC and Peacock
21.00
Tuesday · 3pm ET
Boston at Detroit
An unusually early opener, and the first one to follow from Europe. Boston start without Jaylen Brown, Detroit went 60-22 last season and then moved on a large part of the roster.
01.00
Overnight · 7pm ET
Philadelphia at New York
The Knicks raise their championship banner, the first in 53 years. The opponent is the team that rebuilt its whole roster this summer and brought in not only Jaylen Brown but LeBron James as well.
03.30
Overnight · 9.30pm ET
Oklahoma City at San Antonio
A rerun of the Western Conference finals, on the opening night of the season. For the first time one broadcaster carries three opening games on a single evening.
For the first time in 53 years the Knicks are champions, and they are marking it properly: the players get their rings, and a banner goes up in the rafters of Madison Square Garden for the first time since 1973. There is not much time to dwell on it, because the hunt for a new title starts immediately afterwards.
My top ten for this season
stars = title chance · open a team for its full card from the book
New York Knicks
★★★★★Star player Jalen Brunson
The defending champions, and the team that stayed most intact this summer. Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby are all still there. The question is whether that one season was an outlier or something they can hold on to.
The card from the book
Additions
- Andre Drummond
- James Wiseman
Strengths
- Continuity
- Championship experience
- A deep rotation
Question marks
- Losing Mitchell Robinson
- Whether that one season can be repeated
San Antonio Spurs
★★★★★Star player Victor Wembanyama
Hungrier than ever after losing the Finals, and rock solid defensively. Of the top three this is the side with the most room to grow. The question is whether Tobias Harris is the big man alongside Wembanyama they were looking for.
The card from the book
Additions
- Tobias Harris
Strengths
- A defensive foundation
- Young talent
- Hunger after the lost Finals
Question marks
- Shooting
- Point guard play
Oklahoma City Thunder
★★★★★Star player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Coming off 64-18, Oklahoma City remain the team to beat. Even so I see them weaker: Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe have all left, together around 59 minutes a night that have to be shared out again.
The card from the book
Additions
- Aday Mara (pick 12)
- Bennett Stirtz (pick 16)
- Otega Oweh (pick 41)
Strengths
- Championship experience
- Depth
- Everyone defends
Question marks
- Three rotation players gone
- Minutes for the rookies
Philadelphia 76ers
★★★★★Star player Jaylen Brown
The most talent in the league: Joel Embiid, Brown, Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe and LeBron James in the starting five. Not a collection of big egos, James aside, but young players willing to do the defensive work. They are not higher only because of continuity.
The card from the book
Additions
- Jaylen Brown
- LeBron James
- Anfernee Simons
- Dean Wade
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Strengths
- Talent across the roster
- Young and eager
- Scoring
Question marks
- The health of Embiid and James
- Whether the chemistry clicks at once
Cleveland Cavaliers
★★★★★Star player Donovan Mitchell
Little came in this summer: Peyton Watson has to make the rotation deeper, and beyond that the step has to come from the existing core. A year in which the team has to prove itself rather than strengthen itself.
The card from the book
Additions
- Peyton Watson
Strengths
- A strong core
- Offensive firepower
Question marks
- Performing in the playoffs
- Slow starts
Houston Rockets
★★★★★Star player Kevin Durant
A young core around Durant and Alperen Şengün, who were already there last season. This summer the investment went into depth. Something to make up for after a year in which this team fell short in exactly the big games.
The card from the book
Additions
- Marcus Smart
- Bogdan Bogdanović
- Tari Eason (extended)
Strengths
- Size
- Defence
- Depth
Question marks
- VanVleet's fitness
- Shooting
- Whether the chemistry works
Toronto Raptors
★★★★★Star player Scottie Barnes
With a fit Kawhi Leonard this team can go far, and next to Barnes that may be the strongest defensive pair in the league. What Toronto gave up for him is a lot, and Leonard is no longer the player of 2019.
The card from the book
Additions
- Kawhi Leonard
- Kyle Anderson
Strengths
- A winner in the building
- Defence
- Young and eager
Question marks
- Leonard's fitness
- Quickley's role
- Shooting
Los Angeles Lakers
★★★★★Star player Luka Dončić
Almost unstoppable in attack, and in Walker Kessler there is finally a real centre. Quentin Grimes and Collin Sexton filled out the rotation. It could be very strong, and it could turn into nothing at all.
The card from the book
Additions
- Walker Kessler
- Quentin Grimes
- Collin Sexton
- Sandro Mamukelashvili
Strengths
- Almost unstoppable in attack
- Finally a real centre
Question marks
- The squad's fitness
- Defence
Miami Heat
★★★★★Star player Giannis Antetokounmpo
Giannis next to Bam Adebayo makes Miami a candidate straight away. But a whole layer of depth went out in one go, plus four draft picks and a pick swap. The top is wonderful, underneath it is thin.
The card from the book
Additions
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Bobby Portis
- Klay Thompson
- Tim Hardaway Jr.
Strengths
- The starting five
- The big men
- Defence
Question marks
- Depth behind the starters
- Shooting
Indiana Pacers
★★★★★Star player Tyrese Haliburton
Everyone is fit again. The last time that was true, this team was in game 7 of the Finals. Without Haliburton they were stuck on 19-63 last season. It could be very good, and it could just miss.
The card from the book
Additions
- Ivica Zubac (February)
- Kelly Oubre Jr.
- Larry Nance Jr.
Strengths
- Everyone fit again
- Chemistry
Question marks
- How quickly Haliburton is back to himself
- Losing Turner and Mathurin
Outside those ten are the teams I am watching. Minnesota, because LaMelo Ball next to Anthony Edwards could produce something you cannot work out in advance. Atlanta, the young side that took New York to 2-1 in the playoffs last season. And Phoenix, who brought in Miles Bridges in July, a player who averaged 17.1 points last season.
Boston come with a question mark. Losing Jaylen Brown is too big a blow, I think. Paul George could be very good, but it could just as easily turn into fifteen points a game, and then you have lost a player of MVP calibre. Golden State belong in that group too, but everything has to line up: Stephen Curry has to stay fit and the team is waiting on Jimmy Butler, who is recovering from a torn ACL.
Four teams I expect to finish lower than their name suggests, and in all four cases the reason is depth or defence. At Denver you can win any night with Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray, but behind them it stops. At the Clippers there is chaos around Steve Ballmer, and on the court a likeable young core that is missing exactly the top-end quality. In Chicago it looks like the same story every year: never very good, never very bad, always somewhere in the middle. And what Detroit did I do not understand, because they had the best record in the East at 60-22 and then moved on a large part of the roster.
What changes this season
two changes to the format, five points called more tightly
New in the format
The NBA Cup plays at home
The semi-finals of the cup are no longer on neutral ground: the higher seed plays at home. Only for the final do both teams still travel to a neutral arena, this year Indianapolis, on 11 December.
New in the format
The draft lottery changes
From the 2027 draft the top picks are distributed differently, under the 3-2-1 system. Sixteen clubs take part instead of fourteen. This season's results decide that draft, so this is the first year under the new regime.
Called more tightly
Flopping
Anyone who falls theatrically to draw a foul now gets a technical straight away and the opponent takes a free throw. The league can add a fine afterwards, and a suspension for repeat offences.
Called more tightly
The off arm
An attacker may use his off arm to feel where the defender is, and may lean against him lightly. Pushing off forcefully or extending that arm to create space is no longer allowed.
Called more tightly
Hands on the attacker
A defender who holds off or pushes away his opponent with two hands commits a foul. In recent years that often went uncalled.
Called more tightly
Free throws and closeouts
On a free throw players must take their places along the lane immediately, or face a warning and then a technical. And a defender sprinting at a shooter may take his straight line, but may not step into the shooter's landing space.
The rule book itself has not changed. The five items above with the red label are points of emphasis: things the league published at the start of October, and which referees will call more tightly this season.
Running underneath all of it is the salary cap, which stands at around 165 million dollars this year. Above it sit three more thresholds: the luxury tax at just over 200 million, the first apron at around 209 million and the second at almost 222 million. Above that second apron you can still keep your team together, but you can barely improve it. That is one of the biggest reasons no title has been successfully defended in recent years.
My picks
six predictions for the end of the season
MVP
Victor Wembanyama
San Antonio Spurs
Rookie of the Year
Darius Acuff Jr.
Sacramento Kings
Most Improved Player
Brandon Miller
Charlotte Hornets
6th Man
Peyton Pritchard
Boston Celtics
Defensive Player of the Year
Scottie Barnes
Toronto Raptors
Coach of the Year
Mitch Johnson
San Antonio Spurs
For Wembanyama it is about revenge: a lost Finals can be put right in only one way. Darius Acuff Jr. will get the keys to the offence at Sacramento, I think. And Brandon Miller can make a real breakthrough now that LaMelo Ball has left for Minnesota and much more of Charlotte runs through him.
Where the season goes
from opening night to the Finals in June
October to December 2026
January to June 2027
What I am looking forward to most this season is the East. So many storylines run into each other, and at so many teams there is very little between a top-four finish and no playoffs at all, that what I mainly want to know is where the piece actually falls.
That leaves the question of who is on the podium in June. I have an idea about that, and it is up above. In a few months we will know how far off it was.